Climate Impacts on Freshwater Biodiversity, Ecosystems and Resources (CIBER)

Summary

The global decline in biodiversity is deeply interconnected with climate change, as recognised by major bodies like IPBES and IPCC. ESA’s CLIMATE-SPACE programme emphasises the role of Earth Observation (EO) in understanding climate-biodiversity feedbacks, with freshwater ecosystems being a priority due to their high biodiversity and accelerated degradation rates. ​

Satellites cannot measure biodiversity directly but can infer habitat conditions, which can serve as the basis for biodiversity indicators. ​A major focus of the proposed work is developing scalable freshwater fish biodiversity indicators using satellite-derived environmental data. These indicators can help bridge knowledge gaps, with the goal to create an innovative, transferable workflow that translates EO data into actionable biodiversity insights - addressing both scientific gaps and societal needs in managing freshwater biodiversity in the face of climate change.

However, monitoring progress toward these goals requires consistent, scalable indicators that can capture biodiversity–climate interactions across spatial and temporal scales. Freshwater ecosystems, which host a third of global vertebrate diversity but are declining faster than any other biome, remain particularly under-monitored. Traditional biodiversity assessment methods are spatially limited, while satellites can provide large-scale environmental information but not direct measures of biodiversity. The project therefore addresses a critical scientific knowledge gap: linking Earth Observation (EO)-derived environmental parameters—such as water temperature, productivity, phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundance, turbidity and water depth—to biodiversity models and indicators, particularly for freshwater fish.

Ultimately, the project seeks to bridge the policy and scientific gap by transforming Earth Observation data into actionable biodiversity intelligence that supports environmental monitoring and management.

The CIBER approach specifically resolves existing knowledge gaps and provides new biodiversity information to address research questions directly relevant for IPCC and IPBES assessments. The developed indicator variables should specifically identify and analyse the links between climate, human pressures, and the biosphere as exemplified by fish biodiversity. Freshwater fish is chosen because it provides essential ecosystem services in terms of fishing and food and is therefore of prime interest in research and for the public.

By developing innovative EO-based workflows and indicators, the project aims to provide robust, transferable tools for large-scale biodiversity monitoring and policy implementation, while improving the understanding of climate–biodiversity feedback. Ultimately, the project aims to bridge the policy and scientific gap by transforming Earth Observation data into biodiversity intelligence that supports environmental monitoring and management.

Project plan

The project has four main tasks.

Task one

A full definition of the project work to be carried out, starting with a review and analysis of relevant knowledge gaps and scientific challenges, and an evaluation of data needs and available data products. The task will review and explore the use of habitat templates for freshwater fish by amalgamating EO-based and model-information to design indicators of fish biodiversity. Water quality parameters such as trophic state and water transparency and physical features such as temperature and dissolved oxygen are all characteristics that determine the potential presence of species in a certain habitat. The task will result in a Science Requirements Document, which will also contain descriptions of relevant state-of-the-art analysis methods and modelling. The analytical methods employed are likely to involve data driven statistical methods to characterise habitat templates for the target fish species.

Task two

The effort in task two is to perform collection and necessary pre-processing of the observational data from lakes in Europe and central Asia to be used in the study, and to undertake development of tools and model-data integration. The project relies on ESA CCI ECV datasets, with several freshwater relevant and important parameters produced by the ESA Lakes CCI project, supplemented by other CCI products for cross ECV analysis. We will fully exploit the ECV data sets and explore other Copernicus EO operational services, in-situ measurements, and model simulations to leverage the use of satellite-derived information.

Task three

The literature-based and database-derived information on habitat templates will undergo systematic analyses in three approaches in task three. First, a similarity analysis of the available habitat template data (or functional traits of species) by statistical modelling, which allows a grouping of fish into species pools that share similar habitat requirements. Secondly, field observations on species distribution and occurrences in CCI lakes, as provided by databases like GBIF, can be similarly analysed for co-occurrences and the corresponding iconic fish communities for a given habitat type can be identified. Finally, agreement between both approaches as well as the robustness of predictions for fish community compositions will be assessed.

Task four

The main hypotheses envisioned in CIBER are that globally available environmental indicators can be used to define fish habitat templates that are representative of fish species abundance and diversity. The final task aims to provide a detailed review of our research results with reference to the hypotheses on which they are based.