Climate and marine ecosystem modelling

Summary

The Climate and Marine Production (CAMP) project is advancing understanding of ocean productivity, and its response to climate change, by improving marine ecosystem and biogeochemical models.

The goal is to reduce discrepancies between models outputs when compared with ocean observations to improve past and future projections of ocean productivity. The project will use a new approach based on refining the key parameters that shape model behaviour.

To do this, the team will use high-quality environmental dataset from ESA’s Climate Change Initiative and other global ocean observations to explore how changing conditions influence these parameters. Led by Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Mercator Ocean International and the UK Met Office, CAMP is a collaborative effort between modellers and Earth observation scientists.

Background

The CAMP project addresses the critical challenge of improving the integration of satellite-derived Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) into climate and ecosystem models. While satellite data offer comprehensive, consistent, multi-decadal observations valuable for climate modelling—through data assimilation, model evaluation, and parameter constraint—their uptake remains limited. Barriers include data format issues, mismatched variables between models and remote sensing, and insufficient communication between Earth observation and modelling communities.

To overcome these challenges, the project brings together modellers and CCI ECV providers to enhance collaboration, data usability, and feedback mechanisms. Scientifically, the project focuses on improving marine ecosystem and biogeochemical modelling, particularly marine primary production. It responds to expert-identified priorities including reducing model uncertainty, improving historical reconstructions, and enhancing projections of climate impacts on marine ecosystems—areas vital for supporting IPCC assessments and climate policy.

Aims and objectives

The project aims to address the challenge of improving marine biogeochemical models for climate, with marine primary production serving as the central pivot around which other ecosystem processes and pools are also investigated. We will use three key European biogeochemical models and a satellite-based primary production model. Key to the work is the use of data assimilation and artificial intelligence (AI) tools combined with Climate Change Initiative (CCI) data and field observations to improve models and facilitate intercomparisons. The plan is to reduce model uncertainties, and achieve better convergence across models, thereby increasing confidence in model performance and in climate projections. An added benefit would be new insights into how ecosystem model parameters might be optimised to suit model structure, and to facilitate comparisons across models with differing structures. The synergy between the modelling and the Earth Observation capabilities will be exploited, and the communication barriers between the two communities will be overcome, facilitating future work. Our goal is to influence the strategies and planning of upcoming CMIP activities through the project findings, and through improved communication.

The project objectives are to:

1. Use ESA CCI data with biogeochemical models to assess spatiotemporal variability in model parameters.
2. Test parameter sensitivity across three ecosystem models (ERSEM, MEDUSA, PISCES) and one primary production model.
3. Compare EO and model-based approaches to understand and reduce uncertainty.
4. Test models in 1D, regional, and global configurations.