13 maart 2025
Earth Observation identified as a Key Tool for Tipping Point Preparedness
Space data is considered critical to early-warning and preparing for Tipping point impacts
Tipping points in the Earth system are an important security blind-spot, according to a new policy brief from the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service.
Aimed at EU decision-makers, the brief urges action across EU policies, particularly those focused on climate adaptation and crisis preparedness. It emphasises the need for early warning monitoring systems – for which satellite data can play a key role - to signal the approach of a tipping point and give greater flexibility in responding to the risks posed.
Tipping points in the Earth system are critical thresholds that, once exceeded, can trigger significant and often irreversible environmental changes. These include phenomena such as Greenland ice sheet loss, the slowdown of ocean circulation, and the dieback of tropical forest into a savannah state. The risk of crossing several tipping points increases as global temperatures approach the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold set by the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, posing threats to ecosystems, economies, and societies. Whilst preparedness starts with monitoring, the JRC briefing also highlights the need for assessments of socioeconomic vulnerability (Roman-Cuesta et al., 2025). A recent estimate of the costs of crossing Earth system tipping points suggested global economic damages could reach 25% of GDP by 2050 (Dietz, S. et al. (2021)).
The briefing calls for tailored impact assessments of individual tipping points for Europe, and calls for stronger international climate mitigation action and development of advanced early warning monitoring systems to anticipate and assess future risks.
Research needed on tipping point processes, dynamics, and impacts
A key recommendation from the report is to bolster research efforts to deepen understanding of the processes, dynamics, and impacts associated with tipping elements in the Earth system, which ESA has been working to support. Biophysical models need to be developed to finer spatial resolution and to include the feedbacks and cascading impacts between tipping elements. Earth observation data can be used to improve understanding of the processes and mechanisms at play, and can be used to constrain and refine the models.
Following workshops to consult the research community, the European Space Agency (ESA) is launching a set of six science exploitation projects to address individual tipping elements, and develop the Earth observations, modelling and prediction systems together. Spanning ocean, land, and atmospheric domains, the projects will exploit the satellite-derived Essential Climate Variables developed within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI). These research-quality datasets provide long-term, observation-based evidence to identify key climate trends and support climate modelling. Many of the CCI climate records are provided operationally through the Copernicus Services.
The new Tipping Elements projects are directly addressing knowledge gaps to support the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments on the state of the climate.
The six new ESA Climate Change Initiative Tipping Point research projects are:
- CryoTipping – Marine Ice Sheet Instability Detection This project is investigating how to detect early warning signs of instability in Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier, a critical ice mass in the Amundsen Sea. By combines numerical modelling and satellite observations—such as grounding lines, ice velocity, and elevation changes.
Consortium lead: Northumbria University - TIPSOO – Tipping Points in Southern Ocean Overturning Investigating the Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation (SOOC) tipping points, this project integrates Earth observation data, climate models, and in-situ measurements to detect early warning signals and assess global climate impacts.
Consortium lead: Plymouth Marine Laboratory - SIRENE – Monitoring Vegetation Resilience
Benchmarking vegetation indicators in six key ecosystems—tropical rainforests, Mediterranean oak woodlands, boreal forests, and European beech forests—using Earth observation and in-situ data to improve ecosystem monitoring and predict regime shifts.
Consortium lead: Technical University Munich - TIME – Tipping Points and Abrupt Changes in Marine Ecosystems
Focused on resilience and abrupt shifts in marine ecosystems, this project uses ESA satellite climate data to analyse phytoplankton productivity, subtropical gyre anomalies, food chain efficiency, and coral reef stability, among other factors.
Consortium lead: Plymouth Marine Laboratory - PREDICT – Biosphere Resilience Sensing System By integrating statistical analysis, process-based modelling, and Earth observation data, PREDICT is monitoring resilience changes in key ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest, drylands, and permafrost zones.
Consortium lead: University of Exeter - RESETLakes – Understanding Tipping Points in Lake Ecosystems Lake ecosystem stability is the focus of this project which uses satellite Earth observation data and process-based modelling to assess resilience and abrupt transitions in lake environments.
Consortium lead: EAWAG